The Week Ahead – Trump, Central Banks and Non-Farm Payrolls

The Week Ahead – Trump, Central Banks and Non-Farm Payrolls
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(January 29, 2017) As markets continue to absorb Donald Trump’s new policies after his first presidential week, central banks and economic data will try to still the show in the upcoming week.

Japan, Eurozone, United States and Britain will have their meetings. Markets will also pay close attention to non-farm payrolls on Friday to get further signals of the next interest rate hike.

Here are the main economic events of the upcoming week:

Monday
  • Eurozone Business Confidence for January will be released at 10:00 GMT. The index is expected to hold at 0.8.
  • German inflation rate will be published at 13:00 GMT and expected to shrink by -0.6% MoM. YoY German CPI is expected to fall to 1.7% compare to 2.00% in the previous quarter.
  • Japan Employment Rate data will be releases at 23:00 GMT. Japanese employment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.1%.
Tuesday
  • Australia NAB Business Confidence will be pblished at 00:30 GMT and expected to fall slightly to 4.9 from 5.0.
  • Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision will take action at 3:00 GMT. The BoJ is expected to hold rates and policy unchanged. However, any future policy plans can shake up the markets. The BoJ quarterly outlook report will be published after the rate decision.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi speech will take place 8:00 GMT. Although the ECB decide to hold their easing program unchanged, any signal from Draghi might lead to speculation.
  • German Unemployment Rate for January will be released at 8:55 GMT. Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.00% while the number of unemployed falls by 4000 compared to 17000.
  • Eurozone Flash Inflation figures will be published at 10:00 GMT. Eurozone Inflation rate expected to rise to 1.2% from 1.1% YoY. Core inflation rate expected to remain unchanged at 0.9%. Europe unemployment forecasts to fall slightly to 9.7% from 9.8%. MoM GDP expected to remain unchanged at 0.3 while YoY expected to rise by 1.6% compare to 1.7%.
Wednesday
  • China Manufacturaning & non-manufacturing PMI index will be releaded at 01:00 GMT. Manufaccturing PMI expected to fall to 51.2 from 51.4. Non manufacturing PMI is also expected to fall slightly to 54.4 from 54.5.
  • ECB Non Monetary Policy meeting will take place at 9:00 GMT. The European central bank will publish its economic forecasts.
  • UK Manufaturing PMI index will be published at 9:30 GMT and expected aato fall to 55.9 from 56.1.
  • ADP Employment Report will be published at 13:15 and expected to rise by 165K new jobs compare to 153K a month earlier.
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released at 15:00 GMT. The index is expected to rise slightly to 66 from 65.5.
  • Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision announcement will be published at 19:00 GMT. The fed is expected to make any changes on interest rates. On December, the fed indicated for three rate hikes in 2017. However, markets speculate number of rate hike and the forecast timing.
Thursday
  • Australia Trade Balance will be released at 12:30 GMT. Previous reading came out at A$1.24B.
  • Japan Consumer Confidence will be released at 05:00 GMT and expected to fall to 40.3 from 43.1 a month earlier.
  • Bank of England Interest Rate Decision announcement will be published at 12:00 GMT. The BoE is expected to leave rates unchanged as British central bank stay neutral until further progress of Brexit. The bank will also publish its quarterly inflation report and update markets regarding Britain quantitative easing program which stands on £435B.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims will be released at 13:30 GMT and expected to fall to 250K from 259K in the previous month.
Friday
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI index will be published at 1:45 GMT and forecast to fall slightly to 51.8 from 51.9.
  • US Non Farm Payrolls and Employment Rate will be released at 13:30 GMT. Labor force is expected to grow by 171K jobs compare to 156K a month earlier. Employment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%.
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